According to the Ministry of Finance’s preliminary trade statistics report for June 2026, our country’s trade balance recorded a deficit of 406.9 billion yen, marking the second consecutive month of deficit. While exports of semiconductors and automobiles showed strength by reaching record highs, the ongoing depreciation of the yen and rising costs for alternative energy resource procurement significantly pushed up import values.

The strength of semiconductors and automobiles driving exports

Exports in June 2026 reached 10.929 trillion yen, a 19.3% increase compared to the same month last year, marking ten consecutive months of growth. Strongly supporting this growth is the surge in semiconductor demand driven by the expansion of global AI (artificial intelligence) investments. By item, semiconductors and other electronic components recorded outstanding growth at 730.4 billion yen, up 53.8% year-on-year, while semiconductor manufacturing equipment also performed exceptionally well with an 18.7% increase to 460.1 billion yen. By region, exports to Asia, where demand for semiconductors is concentrated, rose 22.7% to 6.0499 trillion yen, with exports to China also rising 17.6%, showing resilience.

Additionally, exports of automobiles, Japan’s core industry, are showing a clear recovery trend. The export value of automobiles alone reached 1.8276 trillion yen, up 23.0% year-on-year, with easing supply constraints and strong demand in major markets providing tailwinds. In particular, exports to the United States increased by 13.0% overall, while automobiles alone showed a significant increase of 34.5%. In this way, Japan’s manufacturing sector reliably captures external demand backed by strong international competitiveness, but its structure of dependence on overseas energy resources is dragging down the overall balance of payments. The chart below shows the recent trends in export values by item.

Record-high import volumes and the pressure of resource costs

While exports are strong, the expansion of import values is pushing the trade balance into a deficit. Imports in June 2026 reached 11.3359 trillion yen, a 25.4% increase year-on-year, setting a new monthly record. The biggest factor is the sharp increase in imports of mineral fuels, including energy resources such as crude oil, LNG (liquefied natural gas), and coal. The total import value of mineral fuels swelled to 2.102 trillion yen, a 42.0% increase compared to the same month last year. By commodity, coal rose by 46.8%, crude oil and crude oil by 12.1%, and LNG by 14.7%, with rising international energy prices and exchange rates placing significant burdens.

Also, the impact of the weak yen cannot be ignored. According to materials published by the Ministry of Finance, the average rate announced by the customs commissioner in June 2026 is 159.69 yen per dollar, representing a 10.9% depreciation of the yen compared to 144.04 yen in the same month last year. Due to these exchange rate fluctuations, the yen-denominated import unit price has reached a record high of 117,684 yen per kiloliter. The current situation where export growth outpaces the rise in import costs once again highlights that the Japanese economy remains vulnerable to external fluctuations in energy and raw materials.

[Energy and Structural Changes] Current Status of Shift to U.S. Crude Oil and Alternative Procurement

Breaking Away from Middle East Dependence, Rapidly Increasing U.S. Crude Oil Imports

A notable point in the June 2026 statistics is the dramatic structural changes in the sourcing of crude oil. Amid ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, governments and oil companies are accelerating alternative procurement to ensure stable supply. As a result, crude oil imports from the United States surged to about ten times the same month last year, reaching 2.72 million kiloliters in terms of volume, about 5.6 times higher. This is the highest single-month figure ever recorded. Meanwhile, crude oil imports from the Middle East have decreased by 40.6%, indicating a clear trend toward risk diversification.

Diversifying procurement sources is a step forward from the perspective of energy security, but it inevitably impacts logistics costs and prices. According to analysis by Daiwa Institute of Research, the outlook for the Middle East situation remains uncertain, and attention must be paid to the risks of prolonged logistics stagnation and resource surplus. The shift to U.S. crude oil is not just a temporary measure, but a major turning point that will transform Japan’s very structure of energy imports. The following chart visualizes changes in the composition of crude oil import destinations.

Rising import prices and worsening terms of trade caused by yen depreciation

The ongoing depreciation of the yen is a factor that erodes Japan’s overall “earning power.” Trade statistics for June 2026 show export volumes increasing only slightly by 0.2% year-on-year, with the rise in export value increasingly dependent on price increases (the upward effect of a weaker yen). On the other hand, regarding imports, rising prices are directly burdening households and businesses as increased costs. In particular, the import price of energy is at an all-time high, and the worsening terms of trade are severe, with foreign currency earned and payments increasing even more.

To compare this situation to corporate management, although sales are increasing, the cost of procurement rises more than the cost, resulting in a decline in gross profit margins, resulting in a state of ‘increased revenue but lower profit.’ From the perspective of a small and medium enterprise consultant, it is pointed out that it is not important to be optimistic just because exports are growing, but rather to pay close attention to the cash and cash flow remaining on hand. As a whole, it is urgent to rebuild an economic foundation resilient to exogenous yen depreciation and high resource risks, while leveraging the tailwind of advanced demand.

[Future Developments & Key Points] Path to Improved Profitability and Remaining Risks

Supporting AI demand and forecasting profitability within fiscal 2026

Regarding the outlook, the Japan Foreign Trade Council forecasts that the customs trade balance for fiscal 2026 will be a surplus of 1.896 trillion yen, marking a return to profitability for the first time in six years. The background to this forecast is the continued expansion of global demand for AI and data centers, with expectations that exports of electronic components such as semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment will increase further. In fact, AI-related investment is expected to remain at a high level going forward, with electrical equipment and general machinery likely to play a major role in strongly driving Japan’s exports.

Regarding imports, a decline in energy prices is expected in fiscal year 2026, and the decline in mineral fuel imports for the second consecutive year is expected to contribute to improved balance balance. Additionally, as nuclear power plants restart progress, it is expected that the import volume of fossil fuels will be curbed. According to estimates by Daiwa Research Institute, if up to 17 nuclear power plants operate as per government policy, energy imports could decrease by about 2.2 trillion yen annually. If these positive factors proceed smoothly, Japan may be able to escape its prolonged “trade deficit.”

Geopolitical Risks and the Uncertainty Brought by Trump’s Tariffs

While there are expectations for profitability, concerns remain that could significantly distort forecasts. The foremost example is the impact of U.S. tariff measures (the so-called Trump tariffs). The Japan International Trade Council has pointed out the risk that, due to the impact of U.S. tariff tightening, exports of transport equipment will decrease or remain flat from fiscal year 2025 to 2026. In fact, automobile exports to the U.S. temporarily declined in May 2026, casting a shadow over Japan’s core industries due to political developments.

Furthermore, risks to watch include soaring crude oil prices due to heightened tensions in the Middle East and stagnation in steel and chemical exports due to the slowdown of China’s economy. According to analysis by Daiwa Research Institute, Japan’s trade and services balance faces long-term structural challenges such as import dependence on digital technologies and industrial hollowing out, and it cannot be ruled out that the outlook for the balance of payments could decline. To strengthen the balance and balance structure, multifaceted policy responses such as enhancing the competitiveness of high value-added goods that are not affected by mere price fluctuations, diversifying procurement sources, and accelerating decarbonization will become increasingly important going forward.

Reference Page

• [Overview of the June 2026 Trade Statistics (Preliminary Report) – Ministry of Finance] https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st/gaiyo2026_06.pdf

• [Outlook for Japan’s Trade Balance and Current Account for Fiscal Year 2026 – Japan International Trade Council]https://www.jftc.or.jp/research/index2.html

• [June 2026 Trade Statistics – Daiwa Research Institute] https://www.dir.co.jp/report/research/economics/japan/20260722_025927.html

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